Long-term Insights Briefing 2025
Submission from Spokes Canterbury
Reference: https://consult.transport.govt.nz/policy/copy-of-long-term-insights-briefing-consultation/
August 2025
Tēnā koutou katoa
Thank you for the opportunity to comment on the Ministry of Transport’s Long-term Insights Briefing “Moving People in 2055”.
Introduction
Spokes Canterbury (http://www.spokes.org.nz/) is a local cycling advocacy group with approximately 1,300 followers. Spokes is affiliated with the national Cycling Action Network (CAN – https://can.org.nz/). Spokes is dedicated to including cycling as an everyday form of transport in the greater Christchurch and Canterbury areas. Spokes has a long history of advocacy in this space including writing submissions, presenting to councils, and working collaboratively with others in the active transport space. We focus on the need for safe cycling for those aged 8 to 80. Spokes also supports all forms of active transport, public transport, and has an interest in environmental matters.
Overview
Spokes sees this briefing as fundamentally flawed as while New Zealand’s population is expected to grow there are many other possible scenarios than simply increased motor vehicle use.
With appropriate planning in place:
- Our cities will increase in density, growing up not out in appropriate ways. As housing and associated amenities become more dense, fewer people / families wish to own their vehicle if there is convenient and safe pedestrian, cycling and public transport infrastructure close by.
- Cycling has increased in Christchurch 41% in just over seven years. 6% of trips are now made by bike, well above the 2% across New Zealand. As each cycleway is built this number increases. In suburbs like Beckenham with good infrastructure, cycling has reached 20% of commuting. Other suburbs that lack infrastructure remain at 2%. Build safe cycling infrastructure and it will be used. Other cities are now building similar infrastructure and will see similar increases in use. The more people who cycle the greater the demand will be, and the more pressure there will be on our politicians to cater for this growing community as cycling becomes the norm across the full spectrum of our urban communities.
- Electrification has allowed a wider range of people to cycle. The fastest growing group of cyclists are over 65 years old and using e-bikes. There are also significant increases in people using cargo bikes to move children and cargo.
- Trikes and other mobility devices are becoming increasingly common among our disabled community, providing greater autonomy for people who often are legally unable to drive.
- Recreational cycling is steadily growing.
- A growing number of younger people are making a lifestyle choice not to own a motor vehicle.
- Working from home is likely to become increasingly the norm.
- Technology will lead to more flexible public transport options.
- Car-share is growing in popularity and good policy would encourage a greater range of shared micromobility options beyond the current scooters and e-bikes, reducing the dominance of cars in urban areas
- We agree that robo taxis will likely increase congestion, just as Uber has increased the number of motor vehicles on the road. The majority of privately owned vehicles in cities are parked.
- We can put tariffs on imported vehicles again to influence travel choice and use this income to improve active transport including cycling. California is actively encouraging cycling by subsidising the purchase of e-bikes for those who earn below a certain income. Other cities like Paris are reducing access for vehicles to the city to lower emissions and congestion.
- Spokes has a growing number of members who do not own a motor vehicle, however most cyclists own or have access to one. A household that cycles regularly typically owns fewer cars that travel less mileage than average as many local trips are done by bike. This needs more research, however it is likely that there is one car in the family rather than the 1.8 average for New Zealand households. Encouraging higher bike ownership would reduce car ownership and use.
- It is interesting that the document assumes population growth mainly in the upper North Island when the population is growing fast in the South Island, particularly greater Christchurch. The South Island has not been getting a fair share of transport funding for decades which is reflected in the lack of public transport choices in New Zealand’s second largest city. Greater Christchurch should already have a MRT and a much larger bus public transport system. Investment should follow population size as it encourages more use.
- Does Monty take into account how far cyclists can easily travel on an e-bike before getting tired. Distance, wind and hills are much less of a problem with electric assistance. The decision to use an e-bike on any particular journey becomes a matter of time rather than fitness.
- Monty seems to have a bias towards car travel built in from the very beginning. The example of a 13 year old girl defaults automatically to “passenger in a car” when it would be more random. Try running the same scenarios starting with active transport options. It is this ongoing bias that has led us to build car dominated cities for the last 50 years. We need to take a holistic view of transport that starts with good urban planning and liveable cities which provide a wide range of practical, safe, accessible, affordable and healthy transport choices for everyone.
- Monty should model Copenhagen, our major cities can be best of breed world cycling destinations that attract young socially mobile immigrant families to New Zealand looking for an equivalent or better lifestyle.
I am happy to discuss or clarify any issues that arise in this submission
Ngā mihi nui,
Submissions Co-ordinator
Spokes Canterbury
submissions@spokes.org.nz
